Europe is navigating a period of political turbulence that threatens to undermine its cohesion at a time of mounting external and internal challenges. From leadership crises in Western capitals to democratic backsliding in Central Europe, the continent’s ability to maintain unity in the face of war, energy insecurity, and populist pressures is increasingly at risk. These developments highlight the fragility of European integration and raise questions about the European Union’s (EU) resilience as both a political and security actor.

Recent Political Shifts: France and Central Europe

France: A Leadership Crisis

The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government in October 2025 has plunged France into political uncertainty. Long regarded as one of the EU’s pivotal powers, France’s instability disrupts policymaking at both the national and European level. With President Emmanuel Macron’s authority already weakened by domestic unrest and political polarization, the departure of his government raises doubts about France’s ability to provide consistent leadership on issues ranging from Ukraine to EU reform.

Central Europe: The Visegrád Group in Flux

Meanwhile, in Central Europe, the Czech Republic’s illiberal turn has shifted the dynamics of the Visegrád group (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia). Historically, this bloc has coordinated positions on migration, EU reforms, and relations with Brussels. But the erosion of liberal democratic norms in Prague mirrors long-standing trends in Hungary and, more recently, Slovakia. Together, these shifts risk deepening fractures between Western Europe’s commitment to liberal values and Central Europe’s embrace of more nationalist, sovereigntist agendas.

Broader Context: Fragmentation Pressures

Europe’s political shakeups cannot be seen in isolation. They reflect a wider set of pressures:

War in Ukraine: Sustaining unity on sanctions against Russia and military support for Kyiv requires consensus that may weaken if domestic political shifts alter governments’ priorities. Populist leaders skeptical of aid to Ukraine could block future EU-wide commitments.

Energy and Climate Policy: Rising energy prices and ambitious climate targets create political backlash, with populists exploiting fears of economic decline and loss of sovereignty.

Migration and Demographics: Renewed migration flows, driven by instability in Africa and the Middle East, fuel polarization across the continent. The EU’s attempts to create a fair distribution system face resistance from member states.

Economic Inequality: Divergences between wealthy northern states and struggling southern and eastern economies risk undermining solidarity, particularly as inflation and high debt weigh on national budgets.

The Role of Populism and Illiberalism

The rise of populist and illiberal movements represents a fundamental challenge to the EU’s cohesion. These movements often share skepticism toward Brussels, hostility to immigration, and sympathy for authoritarian models. In countries like Hungary and Slovakia, governments openly question the EU’s authority while maintaining membership for financial benefits.

Populism is not limited to Central and Eastern Europe. In France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands, populist parties exert significant influence on public discourse, even when not in government. Their growing popularity reflects widespread frustration with the perceived inability of traditional elites to manage crises effectively.

Institutional Strains Within the EU

Political shakeups translate into institutional difficulties for the EU:

Consensus Decision-Making: The EU’s reliance on unanimity for key foreign policy decisions makes it vulnerable to vetoes from states pursuing narrow interests.

Rule of Law Mechanisms: Efforts by Brussels to sanction illiberal governments through financial penalties or legal action often provoke backlash, further straining relations.

Enlargement Fatigue: While Ukraine and the Western Balkans seek EU membership, internal fragmentation weakens the Union’s ability to credibly expand.

These strains reveal the limits of an institutional architecture designed for cooperation in times of stability but ill-suited to prolonged crises and polarization.

External Actors Exploiting Fragmentation

Europe’s internal divisions also create openings for external actors:

Russia exploits disunity by cultivating ties with populist leaders, amplifying disinformation, and leveraging energy dependence.

China capitalizes on fragmented policies to deepen bilateral relationships, particularly through investment in critical infrastructure in southern and eastern Europe.

The United States, though supportive of EU unity, is itself a source of uncertainty. Shifts in U.S. politics affect NATO commitments and transatlantic cohesion, putting further pressure on European leaders to overcome internal divides.

Future Scenarios

Several trajectories are possible for Europe’s political cohesion:

Managed Fragmentation: The EU continues to muddle through, finding temporary compromises despite widening divisions. Unity on major crises persists but at high political cost.

Deepening Division: Illiberal governments gain strength, blocking collective action on foreign policy, climate, and migration. The EU becomes increasingly paralyzed.

Reform and Renewal: A new generation of leaders pushes for institutional reforms, including qualified majority voting on foreign policy and stronger fiscal solidarity, to safeguard cohesion.

Two-Speed Europe: Frustration with illiberal states leads to an inner core of committed members advancing integration, leaving others at the margins.

Conclusion

Europe faces a critical test of its cohesion and resilience. Leadership crises in key states like France, combined with illiberal trends in Central Europe, underscore the fragility of European unity at a time when global instability demands collective action. The war in Ukraine, energy insecurity, migration pressures, and great-power competition all magnify the costs of fragmentation.

The EU’s future credibility will depend on its ability to adapt institutions, manage diversity among members, and reaffirm its founding principles of solidarity and democracy. Without such adaptation, Europe risks becoming inward-looking and ineffective — a fragmented continent unable to defend its interests in a turbulent world.

Political shakeups are not unusual in Europe’s history. What makes the current moment unique is the convergence of crises: war, climate, populism, and economic uncertainty. Whether Europe emerges weakened or renewed will depend on its capacity to balance national politics with the imperatives of collective survival.