Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's actions ahead of the presidential election on July 28 have sparked controversy and concern. By manipulating the electoral landscape to favor his re-election bid, Maduro has violated the 2023 Barbados accord, which aimed to ensure fair and competitive elections. This situation presents significant challenges for the Venezuelan opposition and external actors, such as the United States, who must decide how to respond to these developments.

Maduro's Electoral Strategy

Maduro's popularity is low, with polls indicating he has around 20 percent support. Despite this, he appears determined to secure a third six-year term, even if it means facing the consequences of reinstated U.S. sanctions. Venezuela's economic collapse over the past decade has been severe, with GDP shrinking by 80 percent. Despite these challenges, Maduro views his continued hold on power as a triumph over U.S.-led efforts to dismantle his regime.

The government's approach to the upcoming election has involved significant interference in the electoral process. Popular opposition figures, such as María Corina Machado, have been barred from running. The National Electoral Council (CNE) blocked the registration of a substitute candidate, further narrowing the opposition's options. These actions have violated the October 2023 Barbados accord, which promised competitive elections in exchange for U.S. sanctions relief.

The Opposition's Dilemma

The Venezuelan opposition faces a difficult decision: participate in a flawed election or boycott it entirely. In 2018, the opposition chose to boycott the election, which only strengthened Maduro's position. Learning from this experience, some opposition members argue that it's better to unite behind a single candidate and provide voters with a viable alternative, even if the election is unfair.

The opposition's chosen candidate from the 2023 primary, María Corina Machado, has been disqualified from running. This has left the opposition fragmented and struggling to find a path forward. Some members of the opposition are considering a boycott, while others insist on rallying around one of the remaining candidates. The lesson from 2018 is clear: boycotting the election would likely benefit Maduro, so the opposition must present a united front.

U.S. Response and Strategic Considerations

The Biden administration faces a crucial decision regarding the extension of the six-month license granted in October 2023, which allows Venezuela to sell oil and gas on the open market. Statements from the administration suggest that some sanctions will be reinstated, but the extent and specifics of these measures remain unclear. Policymakers are wary of returning to a pressure-based strategy that failed to dislodge Maduro in the past and are also concerned about exacerbating the migration crisis at the U.S. southern border.

Approximately three-fifths of the half-million migrants who crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in 2023 were Venezuelans. This trend has continued into the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, there is significant pressure from the oil lobby to end Venezuela's economic isolation. These factors complicate the decision-making process for the U.S. government.

The Barbados Accord and Its Aftermath

The October 2023 Barbados accord, facilitated by the Norwegian government, was a significant step toward addressing Venezuela's political crisis. The agreement included commitments from the Venezuelan government to ensure fair electoral conditions in exchange for U.S. sanctions relief. However, Maduro's subsequent actions have breached several key provisions of the accord.

The electoral register, which has not been comprehensively audited since 2005, excludes millions of eligible voters. The CNE launched a voter registration operation, but it has been marred by obstacles, particularly for the estimated 4.5 million Venezuelans living abroad. These barriers have severely limited the ability of many Venezuelans to participate in the election.

Despite promises of equal access to media, the government has intensified its harassment and closure of independent press outlets while using state media to broadcast official propaganda. This biased media landscape further undermines the prospects for a fair election.

Repressive Measures and Opposition Crackdown

The Maduro administration has also ramped up its crackdown on opposition politicians and civil society activists. The arrest of prominent figures, such as civil society activist Rocío San Miguel, highlights the government's efforts to suppress dissent. Additionally, the National Assembly, controlled by Maduro's allies, has introduced repressive laws that could virtually prohibit dissent and silence opposition voices.

One such law, the Essequibo Defence Law, imposes severe penalties on individuals or organizations sympathetic to Guyana's position in the longstanding territorial dispute. This law expands the government's legal justification for cracking down on its opponents. Another proposed bill, dubbed the "anti-society law," would impose stringent controls on NGOs, potentially forcing many to close.

Opposition Strategies and Potential Outcomes

The opposition is divided on how to respond to the skewed electoral landscape. Some argue for participation, believing that even a flawed election can provide an opportunity to challenge Maduro and revitalize the opposition. Others advocate for a boycott, fearing that participating in an unfair election will only legitimize Maduro's rule.

Despite the challenges, the opposition must find a way to present a united front. Polls suggest that Maduro could lose to a unified opposition candidate, even under unfair conditions. The 2023 election in Guatemala, where outsider Bernardo Arévalo achieved an upset victory, serves as a reminder that tightly controlled polls can still produce unexpected results.

The Role of International Actors

Foreign governments, NGOs, and international organizations have a crucial role in pushing for the best possible electoral conditions. Genuine election observation, even under less than ideal circumstances, remains important. The Barbados accord included commitments to invite observers from the EU, UN, Carter Center, African Union, and Inter-American Union of Electoral Organizations. While invitations have been issued, the government's delay and indifference pose challenges for the deployment of these missions.

The U.S. has significant leverage and must decide how to use it effectively. Maduro's actions demand a response, but a measured approach that preserves the ability to offer sanctions relief as an incentive for political openness is crucial. A full snapback of sanctions could push Maduro to further entrench his authoritarian rule.

Pragmatism and the Path Forward

A pragmatic approach that balances pressure with incentives is essential. The U.S. could consider measures such as rescinding specific licenses while maintaining others to keep some level of engagement with the Venezuelan energy sector. Providing "comfort letters" to European energy firms could also help maintain international pressure without completely isolating Venezuela.

Left-leaning governments in Venezuela's neighbors, such as Colombia and Brazil, can play a pivotal role in steering Maduro towards a more credible election. These countries have effective communication channels with Caracas and can assist in creating verification mechanisms to ensure compliance with the Barbados accord.

The upcoming election in Venezuela represents a critical juncture in the country's political crisis. While the conditions for a free and fair election are not currently in place, participation in the electoral process can still serve as a powerful tool for the opposition. By uniting behind a single candidate and leveraging international support, the opposition can challenge Maduro's rule and push for meaningful political change.

For international actors, the focus should be on maintaining engagement and applying calibrated pressure to improve electoral conditions. A balanced approach that combines sanctions with incentives offers the best chance of steering Venezuela towards a more democratic and stable future. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but with careful strategy and international cooperation, progress is possible.