The conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State has escalated significantly, with the Arakan Army (AA) expanding its control over vast territories, including areas inhabited by Rohingya Muslims. This power shift has created a complex and volatile situation, exacerbated by the Myanmar military regime’s attempts to foment inter-communal strife between the Rakhine and Rohingya populations. As tensions rise, it is imperative for leaders from both communities to take decisive actions to prevent the outbreak of a devastating conflict. This article examines the current situation, the historical context, and potential steps towards peace and stability in Rakhine State.

The Arakan Army's Expansion and Current Dynamics

Over the past six months, the Arakan Army, predominantly composed of ethnic Rakhine fighters, has made significant territorial gains in Rakhine State. Following a major offensive, the AA has managed to expel regime troops from key areas, establishing what is effectively the largest ethnic armed group-controlled mini-state in Myanmar. This region, home to over a million people, includes nine townships and much of the border with Bangladesh.

The Arakan Army's rise has been met with mixed reactions. Many Rakhine residents view the group as liberators from the central government’s exploitation, but the rapid expansion also brings risks, particularly concerning the fragile relations between the Rakhine and Rohingya communities. Historically, these communities have had a contentious relationship, marked by violence and mutual distrust.

Historical Context and Recent Developments

The relationship between the Rakhine and Rohingya communities has been fraught with tension and conflict. In 2012, inter-communal violence led to the deaths of hundreds and the displacement of approximately 150,000 people, mostly Rohingya Muslims. The situation deteriorated further in 2017, when a brutal military crackdown forced around 750,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh, an act that has been labeled as genocide by the U.S. government.

Despite these historical animosities, there were signs of improving relations prior to November 2023. The Arakan Army had initiated measures to integrate the Rohingya, lifting restrictions on their movement and employment, and encouraging interaction between the two communities. However, the AA’s recent territorial gains have heightened tensions, particularly as the Myanmar military regime has sought to exploit the situation by coercing and inducing some Rohingya to align with its forces.

The Role of the Myanmar Military

The Myanmar military, desperate to maintain power, has employed tactics to deepen inter-communal tensions in Rakhine State. In February 2023, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing activated a conscription law, compelling young men and women across the country to join the military. For the Rohingya, who have limited options to escape conscription, this has led to forced recruitment into the military, often under the threat of violence or with promises of citizenship and regular wages.

The military’s strategy has included using Rohingya as cannon fodder in its battles against the Arakan Army and staging demonstrations to incite anti-AA sentiments. This has significantly strained the efforts made by the AA to foster better relations with the Rohingya, as the group’s leadership has made inflammatory statements and taken actions that alienate the Rohingya community.

The Need for a Peaceful Resolution

At this critical juncture, it is essential for the Arakan Army and Rohingya leaders to prioritize peace and avoid falling into the trap set by the military regime. The AA’s recent successes should not lead to a disregard for the delicate communal dynamics in Rakhine State. Instead, the AA must work to rebuild trust with the Rohingya, ensuring that their rights and security are protected.

Key steps towards achieving this include:

Abandoning Inflammatory Rhetoric: The AA should cease using derogatory terms like “Bengali” and adopt more inclusive language that acknowledges the Rohingya’s rightful place in Rakhine society.

Extending Rights and Protections: The AA must commit to extending basic rights to the Rohingya, including freedom of movement, economic opportunities, and access to essential services. This would demonstrate a genuine commitment to governing for all communities.

Avoiding Military Exploitation: The AA should refrain from using Rohingya villages as launchpads for attacks against the military, which only increases the risk of regime reprisals against civilians.

Establishing a Code of Conduct: Publicizing a clear code of conduct for AA soldiers and committing to investigate allegations of abuse can help build confidence in the group’s governance.

Integrating Rohingya into Administration: More Rohingya should be integrated into the AA’s administration, including at higher levels, to ensure their representation and participation in governance.

The Role of Rohingya Leaders and the International Community

Rohingya leaders, both within Myanmar and in the diaspora, have a critical role to play in averting further violence. They must discourage community members from joining armed groups and instead advocate for peaceful solutions. The international community should support these efforts by increasing aid to Rohingya in refugee camps, providing protection services, and pressing Bangladesh to prevent forced recruitment by armed groups.

Encouraging Dialogue and Cooperation

Establishing a regular dialogue between the Arakan Army and prominent Rohingya leaders is vital for overcoming mistrust. Bangladesh, hosting over a million Rohingya refugees, has a strong incentive to facilitate such dialogue to ensure a stable future for Rakhine State. Preventing the recruitment of Rohingya refugees into armed groups is also crucial for maintaining the civilian character of refugee camps and ensuring the safety of refugees.

The conflict in Rakhine State is at a pivotal point. While the Arakan Army’s military successes are significant, they come with the responsibility to govern inclusively and peacefully. By taking proactive steps to build trust with the Rohingya and addressing their grievances, the AA can avoid falling into the trap of inter-communal conflict that the Myanmar military regime is trying to set.

A concerted effort from all parties, including the AA, Rohingya leaders, and the international community, is essential to ensure that Rakhine State can move towards a more peaceful and prosperous future. With careful management and a commitment to inclusivity and human rights, it is possible to prevent a Rakhine-Rohingya conflict and build a foundation for lasting peace in western Myanmar.