The conflict in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province has seen significant international intervention over the past few years, primarily aimed at combating the jihadist insurgency linked to the Islamic State (IS). The Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission, which began in 2021, has been instrumental in stabilizing the region, but with the mission's mandate set to expire in July 2023, questions loom over the future of military efforts in the region.

The Genesis of the Insurgency

The insurgency in Cabo Delgado began in 2017, driven by local grievances such as underdevelopment, competition over resources, and economic disparity. The group, known locally as al-Shabab (distinct from the Somali group of the same name), rapidly gained control over several areas, overpowering local security forces. By 2019, the Islamic State’s central command claimed responsibility for these attacks, signaling a broader connection with transnational jihadist networks.

The Mozambican government initially struggled to contain the insurgency, even hiring the Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked mercenary organization, which failed due to heavy losses and ill-preparedness. The situation escalated with significant attacks, such as the capture of Mocímboa da Praia and the devastating assault on Palma in 2021, which led to the suspension of a major gas project by TotalEnergies and displaced over a million people.

The SADC and Rwandan Interventions

Following the assault on Palma, Mozambique accepted international military assistance. The SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) and Rwandan forces were deployed, with the latter focusing on securing areas around the gas project and recapturing strategic locations. By 2023, these combined efforts had significantly reduced the insurgent presence, bringing relative stability to several areas and allowing many displaced people to return home.

Despite these successes, the insurgency remains a threat. Small militant groups continue to operate in the region, particularly targeting coastal areas and engaging in ambushes, beheadings, and abductions. The recent uptick in attacks has led to concerns that the insurgency is regaining strength, especially as the SADC mission prepares to withdraw.

Challenges Facing SAMIM and the Mozambican Military

The SAMIM mission has faced several challenges, including insufficient funding and logistical support. The mission has relied heavily on member state contributions, with South Africa providing significant financial support. However, funding shortages have hampered the mission's effectiveness, with troops struggling to cover vast areas with limited resources. Operational challenges such as the lack of functioning helicopters and inadequate equipment have further hindered efforts.

Additionally, the working relationship between SAMIM and Mozambican forces has been problematic. The Mozambican military, poorly trained and underpaid, has often relied heavily on international forces to lead operations. Issues such as lack of communication and cooperation have impeded intelligence sharing and operational coordination. Non-military efforts by SAMIM, such as peacebuilding and humanitarian initiatives, have also faced logistical challenges and insufficient support from local authorities.

Future Military and Security Arrangements

As the SAMIM mission draws to a close, several countries have announced plans to continue their military presence in Cabo Delgado. South Africa will keep its forces in the region until the end of 2023 to tackle "illegal maritime activities" and will maintain a smaller contingent until March 2025. Rwanda plans to increase its troop deployment, while Tanzania aims to keep soldiers in Mozambique to prevent cross-border movements of insurgents.

These arrangements are intended to compensate for the end of the SADC mission, but uncertainty remains about the framework under which these foreign troops will operate. There are concerns that the withdrawal of southern African troops could leave a security vacuum that the insurgents might exploit.

Addressing Long-term Security and Stability

The future of military intervention in Mozambique hinges on several key factors. First, there is a need for a clear and transparent agreement regarding Rwanda’s role in the region. Unlike the SADC mission, the terms of Rwanda’s deployment remain opaque, known only to the leaders of Rwanda and Mozambique. Greater transparency through parliamentary approval could enhance the sustainability of the Rwandan presence.

Second, Mozambique must take serious steps to reform its military. The U.S. and the EU have trained quick reaction forces (QRFs) in the Mozambican army, navy, and air force. However, these forces need consistent support and resources to be effective. Mozambique should allocate funds to ensure its soldiers are adequately equipped and compensated. Coordinated international support is crucial to prevent delays in the delivery of necessary military equipment.

Socio-Economic Development and Peacebuilding

Beyond military intervention, addressing the root causes of the conflict is essential for long-term stability. Cabo Delgado’s socio-economic challenges, including poverty, lack of basic services, and unemployment, have fueled the insurgency. The Mozambican government, along with international partners, must focus on providing humanitarian relief, improving public services, and initiating genuine peacebuilding measures.

Investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure are vital to rebuilding the region and preventing future insurgencies. Engaging local communities in these efforts can foster trust and cooperation, making it harder for insurgent groups to gain support. Additionally, promoting economic development through job creation and investment in local industries can help alleviate the underlying grievances that have driven the conflict.

The future of military intervention in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province is at a critical juncture. While the withdrawal of the SADC mission presents challenges, the continued presence of foreign troops, particularly from Rwanda and South Africa, offers a buffer against a resurgence of the insurgency. However, sustainable peace and security in the region will require more than just military efforts.

Mozambique must prioritize reforming its military, improving governance, and addressing the socio-economic issues that have fueled the insurgency. With coordinated international support, the country can build a foundation for long-term stability and development. The stakes are high, but with a comprehensive approach that combines security, development, and peacebuilding, Mozambique can overcome the challenges it faces and secure a better future for Cabo Delgado and its people.