As Ukraine endures its second winter under Russia's invasion, the world watches with bated breath. The upcoming ten months are poised to shape the hopes for peace in Ukraine and the security of Europe. This critical period is marked by three key factors that will play a pivotal role in determining whether Ukraine can achieve a just and lasting peace or remain trapped in the throes of indefinite warfare and threat.

Ukraine's Territorial Recovery

The first element crucial to Ukraine's defense and Europe's security is Ukraine's recovery of its territory. Ukrainians have united in their quest for a peace process that ensures the liberation of their compatriots and territory from Russia's brutal occupation. Over the past four months, Ukraine's counteroffensive against entrenched Russian forces has been relentless and persistent. President Zelenskyy's recent visit to the United States brought promises of U.S. support, including the provision of longer-range missiles.

The question that looms in the months leading to summer is how far Ukraine's determined troops can push the Russian forces back. Notably, efforts around Bakhmut in the east and a drive southward to sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea will be of utmost importance.

Ukraine's Aspiration to Join the European Union

Ukraine's steadfast commitment to its economic, cultural, and political alignment with Europe has been met with hostility from those who seek a new Russian empire. European officials have expressed optimism about elevating Ukraine's candidacy for EU membership to more formal negotiations by early 2024. Progress has been observed since Ukraine received EU recognition as a candidate 15 months ago. An EU conference in December will determine whether Ukraine's candidacy progresses further.

Ukraine's Bid to Join NATO

The next nine to ten months are defined by Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership. The upcoming NATO summit conference in July will reconsider Ukraine's request to join the alliance. While formal admission is not possible during a war, the military, political, and strategic conditions by summer 2024 should enable NATO to invite Ukraine to begin membership accession talks in the NATO-Ukraine Council.

Challenges on the Path to Peace

These three elements are essential for a sustainable peace, but they are also arduous tasks that may require more time. Progress on the battlefield is unpredictable, and Ukraine faces an adversary with a significant population and a formidable prewar economy. Nevertheless, Ukraine's resilience and creativity are evident as they navigate through the challenges.

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy is actively promoting a 10-point peace plan, engaging in discussions at various international conferences. The United States can support this effort by encouraging participation from developing countries and keeping the coalition of Ukraine's supporters unified.

Ukraine's Efforts Against Corruption

Ukraine's leadership is not only focused on its military efforts but also on addressing systemic corruption within the government and economy. Dismissing corrupt officials and pursuing difficult cases, even during wartime, demonstrates Ukraine's determination to succeed. European and NATO officials have acknowledged Ukraine's progress in fighting corruption.

The Bridge to Security

As Ukraine seeks both political and economic security through EU membership and strategic security by joining NATO, a creative response has emerged. The Group of Seven (G7) countries, along with dozens of other nations, have committed to supporting Ukraine with various forms of assistance until it becomes a NATO member. This commitment, formed through bilateral agreements, serves as a bridge toward Ukraine's permanent EU and NATO memberships.

The next ten months will be decisive for Ukraine and the security of Europe. As the conflict enters its second winter, policymakers worldwide must acknowledge the profound impact of Ukraine's fate on the world governed by laws or callous violence. In the face of Ukraine's extraordinary sacrifices to defend justice, liberty, and laws, our collective duty is to stand with them, recognizing the debt we owe to Ukrainians for safeguarding our freedoms as well as their own.

In the pursuit of peace, Ukraine is not alone, and the world must rally behind its aspirations for a just and lasting resolution to the conflict. The coming months will be fraught with challenges, but they also present an opportunity for hope, unity, and the prospect of a more peaceful future.